Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 36 (NeurIPS 2023) Main Conference Track
Shahriar Talebi, Amirhossein Taghvaei, Mehran Mesbahi
This paper examines learning the optimal filtering policy, known as the Kalman gain, for a linear system with unknown noise covariance matrices using noisy output data. The learning problem is formulated as a stochastic policy optimiza- tion problem, aiming to minimize the output prediction error. This formulation provides a direct bridge between data-driven optimal control and, its dual, op- timal filtering. Our contributions are twofold. Firstly, we conduct a thorough convergence analysis of the stochastic gradient descent algorithm, adopted for the filtering problem, accounting for biased gradients and stability constraints. Secondly, we carefully leverage a combination of tools from linear system theory and high-dimensional statistics to derive bias-variance error bounds that scale logarithmically with problem dimension, and, in contrast to subspace methods, the length of output trajectories only affects the bias term.