Change point detection and inference in multivariate non-parametric models under mixing conditions

Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 36 (NeurIPS 2023) Main Conference Track

Bibtex Paper


Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla, Haotian Xu, Daren Wang, OSCAR HERNAN MADRID PADILLA, Yi Yu


This paper addresses the problem of localizing and inferring multiple change points, in non-parametric multivariate time series settings. Specifically, we consider a multivariate time series with potentially short-range dependence, whose underlying distributions have Hölder smooth densities and can change over time in a piecewise-constant manner. The change points, which correspond to the times when the distribution changes, are unknown. We present the limiting distributions of the change point estimators under the scenarios where the minimal jump size vanishes or remains constant. Such results have not been revealed in the literature in non-parametric change point settings. As byproducts, we develop a sharp estimator that can accurately localize the change points in multivariate non-parametric time series, and a consistent block-type long-run variance estimator. Numerical studies are provided to complement our theoretical findings.