Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 28 (NIPS 2015)
Mithun Chakraborty, Sanmay Das
A market scoring rule (MSR) – a popular tool for designing algorithmic prediction markets – is an incentive-compatible mechanism for the aggregation of probabilistic beliefs from myopic risk-neutral agents. In this paper, we add to a growing body of research aimed at understanding the precise manner in which the price process induced by a MSR incorporates private information from agents who deviate from the assumption of risk-neutrality. We first establish that, for a myopic trading agent with a risk-averse utility function, a MSR satisfying mild regularity conditions elicits the agent’s risk-neutral probability conditional on the latest market state rather than her true subjective probability. Hence, we show that a MSR under these conditions effectively behaves like a more traditional method of belief aggregation, namely an opinion pool, for agents’ true probabilities. In particular, the logarithmic market scoring rule acts as a logarithmic pool for constant absolute risk aversion utility agents, and as a linear pool for an atypical budget-constrained agent utility with decreasing absolute risk aversion. We also point out the interpretation of a market maker under these conditions as a Bayesian learner even when agent beliefs are static.