# run-2025-03-28-191849

```
the initials lens is 232
the finals lens is 232
the ground truth lens is 232
Question metaculus-3820: Pearson r = -0.459; Pearson p =  0.182
Question metaculus-2671: Pearson r = -0.766; Pearson p =  0.010
Question metaculus-6478: Pearson r = -0.582; Pearson p =  0.078
Question metaculus-2577: Pearson r = -1.000; Pearson p =  0.000
Question metaculus-3682: Pearson r = -0.257; Pearson p =  0.474
Question metaculus-18177: Pearson r = 0.024; Pearson p =  0.948
Question metaculus-612: Pearson r = -0.274; Pearson p =  0.444
Question metaculus-3656: Pearson r = -0.414; Pearson p =  0.234
Question metaculus-5118: Pearson r = -0.344; Pearson p =  0.330
Question metaculus-5201: Pearson r = -0.805; Pearson p =  0.005
Question metaculus-6330: Pearson r = -0.278; Pearson p =  0.437
Question metaculus-31247: Pearson r = 0.060; Pearson p =  0.869
Question metaculus-1011: Pearson r = -0.887; Pearson p =  0.001
Question metaculus-20752: Pearson r = -0.547; Pearson p =  0.102
Question metaculus-31127: Pearson r = -0.459; Pearson p =  0.182
Question metaculus-3821: Pearson r = 0.124; Pearson p =  0.733
Question metaculus-8483: Pearson r = -0.406; Pearson p =  0.245
Question metaculus-1640: Pearson r = -0.736; Pearson p =  0.015
Question metaculus-5882: Pearson r = -0.173; Pearson p =  0.633
Question metaculus-3416: Pearson r = -0.241; Pearson p =  0.502
Question metaculus-20786: Pearson r = -0.260; Pearson p =  0.469
Question metaculus-6218: Pearson r = -1.000; Pearson p =  0.000
Question metaculus-8605: Pearson r = -0.622; Pearson p =  0.055
Question metaculus-20753: Pearson r = -1.000; Pearson p =  1.000
Pearson r (betw all_initials and all_updates):-0.43 (0.000)
The accuracy of post-debate judgements is 0.6379310344827587
The accuracy of prior-debate judgements is 0.5905172413793104
```

# run-2025-03-29-194328

good overall, small size, but moderate evidence of correlation

# run-2025-03-29-183603

```
the initials lens is 87
the finals lens is 87
the ground truth lens is 87
Question metaculus-3820: Pearson r = -0.230; Pearson p =  0.523
Question metaculus-2671: Pearson r = -0.560; Pearson p =  0.092
Question metaculus-6478: Pearson r = -0.304; Pearson p =  0.393
Question metaculus-2577: Pearson r = -1.000; Pearson p =  0.000
Question metaculus-3682: Pearson r = -0.602; Pearson p =  0.065
Question metaculus-18177: Pearson r = -0.975; Pearson p =  0.000
Question metaculus-612: Pearson r = -0.340; Pearson p =  0.337
Question metaculus-3656: Pearson r = -0.231; Pearson p =  0.521
Question metaculus-5118: Pearson r = -0.342; Pearson p =  0.453
Pearson r (betw initials and updates):-0.34 (0.453)
The accuracy of post-debate judgements is 0.6436781609195402
The accuracy of prior-debate judgements is 0.5517241379310345
```